(WIFR) - Following major upsets in the spring primary season, local political experts and politicians keep a close eye on what the shakeups could mean when voters head to the polls in November.
Analysts believe a major political shift is on the horizon.
“Stay tuned for what’s going to happen. It’s going to be exciting. Whether it’ll be totally in Trump’s favor or not, it looks like it might be now, but I’m not so sure in the long run,” said Bob Evans, Rockford University associate professor of political science.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Senate primary runoff for the GOP nomination, ousting longtime Sen. John Cornyn. Cornyn joins several Republican incumbents across the country who lost their seats when challenged by candidates endorsed by President Donald Trump.
“In the immediate aftermath, a real victory for the president. But he may, as far as lost Senate support on key issues, he may have had to pay a pretty high price. Remember, these people (ousted Republicans) are around for the rest of the term...so they’ll be voting on bills, many of which the president wants to pass and will they support him?” Evans wonders.
Reaction from local politicians
For Congressman Darin LaHood, R-16th District, the ballot upsets mean the Republican party is strong.
“Well, we’re focused on affordability, on making sure that we’re trying to bring down prices for the American people. I think that has to be a big issue,” LaHood said.
Paul Nolley, LaHood’s Democratic opponent for the 16th District congressional race, says an endorsement from Trump isn’t a badge of honor.
“I see people, not just Democrats, not just Independents, but Republicans coming on to our campaign because they’re sick of this and they want a new option, they want new leadership, and they don’t want people who are going to be rubber-stamped for President Trump,” Nolley said.
Trump’s popularity and the setup for November
A May 2026 survey from American Research Group, found that 31 percent of Americans approve of the way Trump is handling his job — his weakest showing across both terms in office.
“He’s been more effective at holding his House and Senate majorities than most second-term presidents, but there’s a kind of inevitable weakening of a second-term president as he goes further and further into his second term,” Evans said.
Evans notes the difference between Trump’s popularity with his own base and his unpopularity among the general population—as shown in the polls—is striking.
“As long as he holds that base, the MAGA base, as intensely as he does. Then, he’ll be able to guide and steer the Republican party.”
However, Evans believes Trump has a lot at stake in the midterm elections.
“If President Trump is not responding to the polls that show energy prices, inflation and other issues, affordability is the generalized term, if the Republicans don’t address those the rest of this summer and into the fall, then they will suffer big defeats because all the polls show that’s what the American people are concerned about,” Evans said.
Evans claims it’s hard to know what will happen in the upcoming midterms, but party loyalty versus party majority will be tested.
“We’re in for more controversy. I think that’s almost certain. More controversy, more squabbling. So the American people aren’t likely to be reassured by the elections we’re going to have this November.”
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